By Michael A. Genovese
All presidential debates are not created equal. In fact, there is a huge difference between debates in the presidential primaries, and debates in the general election.
Debates are more important in the primary season because they are in-party contests, or intra-tribal battles. In that, the debates are a bit of a family squabble, an argument among family members who share many uniting values yet disagree about how best to achieve those goals. We are all members of the same tribe, and have a certain amount of trust and faith that, while there may be clear differences between candidate X and candidate Y (e.g., Warren versus Biden), those differences are rarely so important as to divide the family irreconcilably. Yes, some family fights end up splitting the family for a time, or even forever, but such fights are rare, and usually, families find a way to make up in the end. It may be a tenuous reunification, but over time, the family comes together.
In primary debates, fluidity and indecision are the norm, as many voters are only now focusing on the candidates – and if there is a big field, voters may like one candidate early, but switch to another candidate after an especially strong debate performance. But it is still, all in the family. It is easy to switch because, well, they are all members of our family, and to switch is not a sign of disloyalty.
In the general election, we have already chosen sides, and the other tribe is our enemy. There is less room for party-switching or candidate-switching. We dig in our heels and support our tribe and our candidate, and the rival party and candidate be damned. To move over to the other side is an act of betrayal. Democrats see the Democratic candidate as winning the debate regardless of the actual performance of their candidate. The same holds for Republicans. You just don’t see a Democrat saying, “Ya know, I like my guy, but that Republican really makes sense.” Nor would a Republican cede the same ground to the Democratic candidate. Therefore, candidate performance in the general election debates present the candidate with very few undecideds to appeal to. Democrats vote for Democrats, Republicans for Republicans. And the few available swing or undecided voters must then rely on their own estimation of who won the debate, or rely on intermediaries such as the post-debate spin doctors or media talking heads to interpret who the winner might be.
So, expect ongoing fluidity. And expect the primary debates to matter. After all, the family is still arguing over who is their favorite cousin.
Michael A. Genovese holds the Loyola Chair of Leadership and is president of the Global Policy Institute at Loyola Marymount University. He has written 50 books, and often appears as a political commentator on CNN, CNNi, CBS, KCAL and other media outlets.
